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The Draft: End Times
- Tim Brusveen
- Apr 29
- 7 min read
The 2026 Draft is in the books and it’s a sad day because we’re as far away as possible to the 2027 draft. PFF has their Big Board up so I will start tomorrow. In the end 2026 feels a lot like 2025: you can see the vision, you see the organizational alignment but are still left with a few nagging questions. So let’s do it. Picks will have their actual selection number, where they appeared on the Brusveen Big Board, their caliber color (explained here) and their pick value score which is just their selection minus their Big Board number in an attempt to quantify a little bit of the “value” or lack thereof.
Day One
Selection: 25
BBB: 28
Caliber: Purple
Pick Value: -3
The reason I used a big board this year is because I found a way to completely remove my opinion from it, I used three composite sources (The Beast by Dane Brugler, NFL Combine official scouting reports and PFF’s Big Board) to order players in a way that laid out the numbers the way they existed without any uneducated bias from me. I make this point because if you look at the pick value, Thieneman actually looks like a slight reach at 25. But I also make this point to say the BBB is wrong and bad and dumb because this is a banger of a pick and I couldn’t believe so many teams passed on a plug-and-play safety with big time upside. I covered why a safety is so transformative to a defense if you find the right one earlier this week so I’ll spare it here but suffice to say this was a great pick. If I were to give grades I’d give an A+. Positional value is what pushes safeties down the board but at 25, you want the best player who offers you the best long-term success, this is it.
Day Two
Selection: 57
BBB: 91
Caliber: Yellow
Pick Value: -34
Day Two is where Ryan Poles took the most of his criticism, some for good reason and some that needs to be explored. Ultimately with this pick, they wanted a center, I was skeptical of that just because it seems interesting to trade a 5th round pick (next year) for Garrett Bradbury to immediately undercut him. Jones was also the first center off the board, the Chargers took Jake Slaughter six picks later, Trey Zuhn to the Raiders a round after and then other perceived targets like Sam Hecht and Connor Lew went significantly later. If you look at the video of the call between Jones and Ben Johnson it’s very clear that Johnson got his guy. You could quibble with “value” here but in the end, they had a guy they liked more than the rest of players at his position and didn’t want to risk losing him. Fair enough. Jones should learn for a year and then assume the role of starting center, I’m not going to bet against an Iowa offensive line prospect.
Selection: 69 (traded pick 60 to Tennessee who selected Anthony Hill Jr.)
BBB: 89
Caliber Color: Yellow
Pick Value: -20
This is where the knives really started to come out at Poles. The question becomes, how many tight ends do you need? Well, there is a very real league trend moving towards 13 personnel, meaning three tight ends on the field at a time. The story is this: after the Chiefs destroyed people with their Tyreek Hill-driven vertical offense, teams adjusted to just sit in two high shells, safeties would just sit deep and refuse to let anyone behind them. This became the go-to defensive scheme to force teams to execute pass plays in the intermediate range over and over again. The offensive rebuttal has been to put three tight ends on the field and either run the ball with a size advantage or force one of those safeties down to cover a pass catcher. It goes hand-in-hand with the Thieneman pick. They drafted both ends of the trend. Thieneman would cover a guy like Roush in the new NFL. A player like Roush forces a team to have a player like Dillon Thieneman. Was the 69th selection worth a third tight end right now and one that won’t ever be your number one tight end? Definitely worth a debate. However, the league would tend to side with Poles as there was a league record nine tight ends taken on Day 2.
Selection: 89
BBB: 256
Caliber Color: Red
Pick Value -167
Deep sigh. There are so many ways to go with this one which is really the pick that should be getting the criticism that Roush is getting. With the understanding that sure, these teams have way more information than the outside world does, there is a limit. There aren’t secret games that are being played, most of the time consensus is in the ballpark. By pick value, this was the worst pick of the NFL Draft. You won’t find any outlet that had Zavion Thomas as a Day 2 pick. You’ll find many outlets that had Zavion Thomas as an undrafted free agent. Dane Brugler had him as his 34th WR and 260th player overall. PFF had him 213. He wasn’t on Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 150. Lance Zierlein had him as a 6th round player. I could go on.
Ben Johnson can rock while he’s watching film all he wants but at a certain point, you are being arrogant. This was arrogant. As was Ruben Hyppolite last year. As was Kiran Amegadjie and Tory Taylor two years ago. As was Velus Jones. All mid-round picks that were panned in the moment and proved to be exactly what they were expected to be: bad. Ryan Poles hasn’t earned any sort of benefit of the doubt when it comes to these picks. You can trust Ben Johnson all you want but the fact is that the guy actually in charge of making the pick, has done this before. This is very much like the Taylor pick in that he’s a pure specialist who needs to be the best player at his job in the league pretty much immediately to justify the slot. Well what would you have done smart guy? Edge Jaishawn Barham who I had as a purple player went three picks later to Dallas. There were really 50 picks they could have made. Finding a fast guy in the NFL Draft isn’t particularly difficult. You want to trust Ben Johnson? Fine. But it better work and work immediately. Because this looks like classic Ryan Poles thinking he's the smartest guy in the room while everyone else quietly laughs at him. F minus.
Day Three
Selection: 124 (traded up with Carolina)
BBB: 75
Caliber Color: Green
Pick Value: 49
If Day Two was let’s say… uneven, Day Three was an excellent value gathering. Muhammad will likely start immediately and is the second most valuable pick of their draft. He doesn’t necessarily fit the size of previous Bears cornerbacks but he’s the kind of plug and play talent that you are looking for in the third day. Sometimes it’s not that difficult, he was very productive in college, a highly respected prospect by analysts and evaluators that was taken a little lower than he probably should have been. This is a pick that good teams make. It also puts Tyrique Stevenson on job watch. He may still be on the team this year but this all but eliminates any possibility of him getting a second contract from the Bears. Praise be.
Selection: 166 (trade with Carolina)
BBB: 85
Caliber Color: Orange
Pick Value: 81
By the pick value metric, this was their best pick. Consensus was a little fuzzier on Elliott who didn’t have a very good combine but was an incredibly productive college player; one of only two players in FBS to have 80 tackles, 14 TFLs and seven sacks. His coverage ability leaves something to be desired but sticking with the theme of NFL trends, that “coverage linebacker” job is moving more and more towards a safety’s responsibility. Elliott is a good downhill tackler who can also serve as a blitzer. Bear fans are upset about no edge rusher, Elliott is going to find himself in that mix a little bit. This likely unseats Noah Sewell who was rated as one of the worst linebackers in football last year so that makes each of the last two picks as selections that are likely to squeeze out problems on defense.
Jordan van den Berg, Interior Defensive Line
Selection: 213 (trade up with Buffalo)
BBB: 269
Caliber Color: Purple
Pick Value: -56
The Pick Value doesn’t look great here because there is a very real chance this is a player who never plays in an NFL game. He’s likely headed for a Year 1 of healthy scratches. However, this is what the back of the draft is for. First off, the trade of two sevenths for this pick is good asset management; the two picks traded to Buffalo for this were used to select a punter and a developmental guard. Nothing lost. Van den Berg is an elite level athlete. If he was invited to the Combine his circuit would have been the 2nd best in the history of the event. A late bloomer who is relatively new to football that gives some developmental optimism. If he isn’t being scratched, his early role is special teams, particularly on field goal block which could be some hidden value here.
The End
Bears fans are mad they didn’t do very much on the defensive line. It’s true. But at this point, we might have to accept that Ryan Poles simply disagrees with pretty much everyone and every metric and he believes that the pieces he has assembled are good. Is he wrong? Almost certainly. But it is what it is at this point. Aside from one pick, the Bears used their draft to modernize their team and add long term solutions to potential problems. It certainly lacked the “splash” that will win draft grade columns but in an offseason defined by practical, low-flash additions, this draft very much fits that mold.
However, the question that has dogged them all offseason: “how is this team better than the one that walked off the field after a playoff loss?” still doesn't have a clear answer. If you have to keep asking the question, that’s usually your answer. It feels like fan expectations were that this team would continue to step on the gas and try to win a Super Bowl this year. This offseason seems to contradict that belief. This was a free agency and draft of a team that in their heart of hearts probably knows they overachieved last year thanks to some high variance things and are more interested in setting up a runway that makes 2027-2030something their true window. Is that smart? It certainly feels like it’s missing an opportunity but this draft very much mirrors that philosophy. If that is in fact the actual philosophy behind this offseason, the draft feels the same. “OK, I understand what you did even if I don’t totally agree with it but… it better work.”
