The Morning Dump: What's Going to happen in the draft?

The NFL Draft begins Thursday night and according to some experts, players may be selected by NFL teams.

The Bears being at #10 this year feels a bit like karmic justice for last year’s luck. The first stroke was that the Carolina Panthers managed to be awful and not just kind of bad like most teams the year after they have the first overall pick. Without that stroke of luck, Ryan Poles is probably trying to sell fans on JJ McCarthy or Michael Penix as the franchise savior, instead of Caleb Williams. The second bit of great luck was that the quarterback class was excellent and it pushed down other players, like Rome Odunze into the Bears’ range at number 9. Williams would be an even bigger lock to go #1 in this draft and Odunze would be the unanimous #1 receiver instead of at best, the third as he was last year. All that is to say the 2024 Draft fell very nicely for the Chicago Bears. This year, there seems almost no way it falls perfectly.

The first issue is the quality of the class itself. Ryan Poles likes to refer to “blue players” but call them what you want: blue chips, star players, elite tier, this draft doesn’t have very many of them. Abdul Carter is one. So is Ashton Jeanty. What position does Travis Hunter play and is he good enough at either one to call him a star? What about Tyler Warren? Should Mason Graham and Will Campbell travel to Germany for experimental arm lengthening surgery? That’s all to say that Carter and Jeanty seem like the only two sure bets. Compare that to last year where six first rounders made the Pro Bowl in their rookie year with the expectation that that list will grow soon enough by adding Joe Alt, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Caleb Williams to it. Nothing is going to fall into Ryan Poles’ lap like it did last year. This draft is going to require some luck but more importantly, good evaluation and analysis from their staff. Poles’ record on that account is far from stellar but here’s hoping Ben Johnson has injected some common sense into the room. The free agency process would certainly suggest he has. So? What’s going to happen?

Occam’s Razor (The simplest explanation is the most likely to be correct, read a book)

The Top 8 goes:

1) Cam Ward

2) Travis Hunter

3) Abdul Carter

4) Will Campbell

5) Mason Graham

6) Ashton Jeanty

7) Armand Membou

8) Jalon Walker

All of these players fit the need of the team selecting them and the player falls in the range of their value. All it takes is one team to throw a wrench in things like Atlanta last year but right now it seems like chalk might win the day. Nine is where things can get tricky but ultimately for the Bears it doesn’t really matter if the Saints draft Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart or Will Johnson or Tet McMillan or Shemar Stewart or Mykel Williams.

The Bears will be left at ten with all the top end talent gone and the next 20 or so prospects all similarly grouped with flaws and upside. If Ryan Poles chooses to chase his “blue player” he will take Tyler Warren but it’s far from a clean pick. The Bears have a tight end already, maybe Warren unseats him quickly but tight end is a luxury pick even with a barren depth chart, using a top ten pick on one with a capable starter already in the building is quite a large hat on a hat. There’s a very good chance Tyler Warren becomes an excellent NFL player but for Ryan Poles, it can’t be a chance. It has to be a fact. For a GM whose job security is at least a topic of discussion, a pick that is required to be a home run seems like a big risk. The 33rd Team comps Warren to Dallas Goedert, a solid player no doubt but if Warren becomes Goedert is that worth the tenth pick? Cue random Tony Romo noises IIIII dunnnooo Jiiim!

All of the edge players come with big time flaws and probably aren’t worth their value at ten either. It seems like Shemar Stewart’s name these days is “Shemar Stewart who had four sacks in three years in college” is fighting issues with his college production. Mykel Williams is young but was injured part of last year and may take some time to become anything. Mike Green is dodging multiple allegations of sexual assault. Donovan Ezeiruaku has a good floor but a low ceiling. James Pearce is considered a specialist.

Running back Omarion Hampton took a Top 30 visit to Chicago but it’s hard to see such a reach with the quality of the running back class. Jeanty is in a class by himself but the daylight between Hampton and guys like TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins is not worth the leap. That leaves the main priority of the offseason, the offensive line.

It’s true there are no clean prospects here either but given the heavy lifting early in the offseason, it’s not an exaggeration to say the Bears are a left tackle away from having one of the best offensive lines in football. Braxton Jones is solid enough depending on your metric. PFF really likes him but their o-line metrics are weird. Regardless of what you think of him; he’s injured and will be a free agent after the year. Given the tackle market in free agency: Steeler Dan Moore Jr. was PFF’s 46th ranked tackle and received a four-year, $82 million contract from Tennessee, making him the league’s tenth highest paid tackle, it’s fair to wonder if the Bears have the appetite for the deal Jones would want. Jones ranked 20th in PFF’s tackle grade, so if he recovers from his injury, he almost certainly surpasses Moore and becomes one of the highest paid tackles in the league. Maybe the Bears are willing to do that. But having a backup plan is probably a good idea. That backup plan serves the purpose of being the heir to Jones as well as being insurance for Kiran Amegadjie. His rookie season was mismanaged but it is still a wide-open question if he is even an NFL player.

Josh Simmons, Kelvin Banks and Josh Conerly seem to be the three in the range here. Again, all with flaws but with less risk than any other position that could be taken here. Simmons’ best selling point is how well he moves for a guy his size. In a Ben Johnson offense, a tackle who can get to the second level and move on the edge would be highly valued. The problem with Simmons is that he’s hurt and will almost certainly get a late start to his season. Not to mention, a major knee injury for a guy whose best attribute is movement gives you some pause. Banks has been one of the best linemen in the country since he arrived in Austin and will likely be a quality lineman in the NFL as well, it just may be inside at guard.

The stars seem to be aligning for Josh Conerly, the left tackle from Oregon. He took a Top 30 visit, I keep referencing these because of the three first round picks Ryan Poles has made as GM, all have been on the Bears top 30 list. They also closely align to later picks as well with Amegadjie, Gervon Dexter, Tyrique Stevenson and Tyler Scott all being on the visitor list during their draft year as well. It also just makes the most sense from a fit standpoint; he's a good bet to stick at left tackle but may need a year to develop. If he plays as the swing tackle this year as well as some depth across the front in Year 1 and slides into the starting left tackle role in Year 2, that’s a great first round pick. His 33rd Team scouting report compares him to Dion Dawkins, the four-time Pro Bowl tackle who makes his living protecting Josh Allen. If you could take Dion Dawkins at #10 this year, you’d obviously take it and run. Sometimes it’s just that simple.

Other Things That Could Happen Maybe

The mythical trade down is always a fun option to speculate on pre-draft but this year the problem is finding a team that wants to move up. The quarterback spot’s lackluster quality has been well documented, you’d need to a team to really be in love with Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart and that just doesn’t seem to be the appetite. There also really isn’t a team in the Bears’ vicinity who could theoretically take a QB that another team would be interested in jumping. San Francisco, Dallas, Miami, Indy, Atlanta, Arizona, Cincinnati, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Denver are the next ten picks after the Bears at ten. None of those teams are in the QB market. You could argue Indy should be (and you’d be right) but they’ve already made their plans this year well known. Pittsburgh at 21 is the next logical spot for a QB but with that order in front of them, what is the motivation to move up? Maybe someone like Cleveland tries to get back into the first round but again, that requires a large amount of conviction in one of the QBs that doesn’t seem to be there.

The mythical trade up is even more fun but that seems even less likely than the trade down. The problem with wanting to trade up for an elite player in a thin draft, the team that currently holds that pick probably wants that player. There has been some light speculation about the Giants being willing to move down from #3 to take Shedeur Sanders a little later and pick up some capital for their trouble but that seems like wishful thinking from anyone who wants Abdul Carter.

The mythical slide of the guy you want is the final piece of the Holy Trinity of Draft Speculation. Any Bear fan should be rooting for the Ashton Jeanty slide to ten. But every Bear fan should also know that there is approximately a zero percent chance of it happening at this point. He’s quite possibly the draft’s best player with a field leading Next Gen Combine Score of 95. He’s the best running back prospect since Bijan Robinson. He was PFF’s #1 running back last season. He boasts some of the most insane college stats you’ll ever seen including leading the nation in rushing yards by almost 1,000 yards or – and this one is my favorite – his 1,882 yards after contact would STILL lead the country in rushing yards. He gained more yards after being hit than any other running back did in general. The guy is going to be a monster. That’s why he’s not getting to ten. Neither is Abdul Carter or Mason Graham. Josh Conerly, you are a Chicago Bear. Or not. I don’t know.