.png){kind=small}
No Offseason: Hold The Line
- Tim Brusveen
- Feb 28
- 4 min read
Turnovers were the lifeblood of this unit that would have likely been recognized earlier as one of the league’s worst units without them. However, a gutty performance in the final game versus the Rams gives some reason for optimism when the secondary is at full health, and Kyler Gordon can be weaponized the way they envisioned when he was extended.
The numbers aren’t pretty: 29th in total yards allowed, 22nd in pass yards allowed, 27th in rush yards allowed, 23rd in points allowed but… 1st in turnovers. Analytically, 21st in EPA per play, 26th in success rate, 17th in EPA vs the pass, 24th in EPA vs the rush, 22nd in sack rate. Pretty bad across the board. Which means lots of work to do.
The Needs:
Defensive End
This is one of those positions that seems more of a problem because of the narrative rather than the reality. The pass rush wasn’t good, but the interior of the line was a significantly larger problem. They got nothing from the inside. The actual edges were fine if not spectacular. Austin Booker might be quietly ascending. He was 7th among all defenders in hurries per game last year. That’s ahead of Myles Garrett and Aidan Hutchinson and 32nd in pressure rate per game, better than Trey Hendrickson. Montez Sweat has been perfectly acceptable as a contributor to a good pass rush; his pressure rate per game was 44th and 16th in sack rate, better than Maxx Crosby. This is a little bit of cherry picking for sure, but it just contextualizes that “DEY GOTTA FIX DA PASS RUSH!!!” isn’t all or even mostly due to the edge play.
In-House and PFF Position Rank /115
Montez Sweat – 43
Austin Booker – 75
Dayo Odeyingbo – 102
Daniel Hardy – NA
Free Agents and PFF Position Rank /115
Khalil Mack – 12
Trey Hendrickson – 13
Joey Bosa – 17
Jadaveon Clowney – 18
Dante Fowler – 21
Cam Jordan – 24
Arnold Ebiketie – 28
Jaelan Phillips – 34
Odafe Oweh – 46
Boye Mafe – 46
Dennis Gardeck – 54
Derek Barnett – 58
Preston Smith – 59
Dre’Mont Jones – 65
Von Miller – 66
Sam Ebukam – 68
Arden Key – 70
Kyle Van Noy – 76
K’Lavon Chaisson – 80
Kwity Paye – 85
Malcolm Koonce – 90
Josh Uche – NA
I’m not sold on a splash being made here. Odeyingbo still has a role and Shemar Turner is likely to be in this mix as well. The Bears being good opens up the possibility of a stud veteran taking a one-year deal to chase a ring. Maybe that means Mack or Bosa on a sweetheart deal. I don’t think Hendrickson takes less. The upside guys who want real money will be Ebiketie, Mafe, Oweh and Phillips but each one of them presents a problem the Bears are already dealing with; paying top dollar for 2nd tier production (Sweat) or betting on traits and projection rather than production (Odeyingbo). A one-year deal from the list under Boye Mafe and a dart throw in the draft seems like the way here.
Defensive Tackle
Signing Grady Jarrett was a bad move before the ink was dry. Giving lots of money over multiple years to a declining player that had been released by the team that knew him best was just wrong from every perspective in the process. When he played, he looked like a declining player. He ranked 134th in pressure rate among defenders. Sometimes it's that simple. Gervon Dexter proved better against the pass than the run, Andrew Billings is a free agent, and the rest of the depth was made up of journeyman and practice squad lifers. The edge position is flashier, but the interior of this line is a bigger need. I’m going to include Shemar Turner here because that’s still where he’s listed, but he moved outside before he was injured last year and came into the league as a tweener. It seems like he’s headed for the edge, hold him now.
In-House + PFF Position Rank /134
Gervon Dexter – 72
Grady Jarrett – 76
Shemar Turner – NA
Free Agents + PFF Position Rank /134
David Onyemata – 8
DaQuan Jones – 10
Christian Wilkins – 17
Sheldon Rankins – 19
Calais Campbell – 26
Tim Settle – 27
Roy Lopez – 30
DJ Reader – 33
Sebastian Joseph-Day – 40
Shelby Harris – 52
John Franklin-Myers – 53
Da’Shawn Hand – 64
Levi Onwuzurike – NA
Not that any of this isn’t wild speculation but this position group really gets into the wild speculation on what they want to do. There are rumors from the Combine that they’re shopping Dexter, so it seems like they may just rip this thing down to the studs. They’re stuck with Jarrett but everything else is open to change. The flashy name on this list is Christian Wilkins who hasn’t played since he was injured and accused of being weird in the locker room but is probably the best player available. If they’re looking to upgrade the role of “huge guy who clogs the middle” that Andrew Billings was in, any of Rankins, Reader, Harris or Hand would work fine. If they hold on to their draft pick, someone like Kayden McDonald or Lee Hunter is probably going to be their first-round pick. The only player available whose pressure rate per game from the interior was higher than the Bears’ leader (Dexter) would be John Franklin-Myers. I’ll go hand up and say I’m not totally sure how this group gets significantly better without a lot of good luck. A short- term deal for David Onyemata while the draft pick learns and develops would be a good place to start, but that leaves you with two interior tackles in their mid-30s and does the exact thing I just criticized them for doing with Jarrett. This should be where the people who get to spend their 9-5 thinking about football rather than something else should make their money because I don't really see the path.
To Be Continued... Adding speed to the linebacker group and replacing both starting safeties.
