No Offseason: The Bears 2026 Offseason

This Bears offseason will first be defined by subtraction or at least changes to current salary structure and pushing back the bill to a future date. While the pure cap math (anywhere from 4 to 7 million over) paints a bleak picture, this offseason will probably serve to bolster the case of those who claim that the NFL salary cap “doesn’t exist.” While it obviously does exist to some extent, a Chiefs’ cap crunch was how the Bears were able to land Joe Thuney, the raw numbers don’t represent the actual reality of the situation.

Because of the way contracts are structured in the NFL, teams can clear short term money by restructuring contracts. These become de-facto extensions in which the team will take some of the money promised to the player this upcoming season and move it to the future. Very helpful in the short term but the bill eventually comes due. There is also the more straightforward route of cuts and trades which will get most of the headlines. Either way, there won’t be any significant financial restrictions on the Bears to get done what they want to get done. It may require some gymnastics but as long as Ryan Poles doesn’t have to cut a journeyman safety, he’ll probably be able to withstand it.

The way they clear the money will tell you a lot about the direction of team. If it is trades and cuts, they want to keep their long-term books clear to withstand a Caleb Williams extension and continue to build. If it’s restructuring, they’re going all in for the next two years and hope a highly paid Caleb Williams can carry a roster with lots of bad money.

First let’s look at the options for more traditional salary clearance, trades and releases:

DJ Moore: This is really the hinge point of the offseason. A release does nothing. A trade before June 1 gets the Bears $15 million. After June 1, $25 million. Consider me skeptical for a couple of reasons: Ryan Poles is slow to admit mistakes and this would mean trading an entire extension that he negotiated with Moore before the 2024 season. Moore is also coming off the worst season of his career with questions about his effort and desire. I’m not sure how many teams are going to be lining up for him. If Spotrac is to be believed, they can restructure him and clear 28 million but that also means you are paying DJ Moore in some form or fashion for the next five years. I’m not sure if they want to do that.

Savings: 25 million

Jaylon Johnson: Given the attrition in the secondary, this seems unlikely but Johnson barely played last year and is due another extension after throwing a tantrum the last time he wanted one. He said before last season that he has “done been ready” to talk extension. Given that he tends to live on a different planet, expect him to want a raise for the four games he played last season. It’s possible you have to extend him before the start of the season to avoid more whining. If they designate him as a 6/1 cut or trade, they would clear 16 million dollars and avoid a headache.

Savings: 16 million

Tremaine Edmunds: This is a lock. Forgive my certainty. He wasn’t worth the money and would get them 15 million back. This is done. There is a small chance they work out a multi-year extension to lower his cap hit but that would indicate they think the player is still a fit. Fit for the vibes? Absolutely. Fit for the actual team that plays football? Eh.

Savings: 15 million

D’Andre Swift: This gets into the area of needing to cut useful players that you would just need to replace anyway. Unless there is some deep dislike for D’Andre Swift that didn’t show itself on the field this year, the 6ish million that this would clear seems to be at best a wash.

Savings: 6.2 million

Cole Kmet: Same as Swift. Kmet silenced the idea that Colston Loveland was coming for his job by playing well along with adapting to the multiple tight end sets that Ben Johnson favors and the whole league is trending towards. Kmet may be a tad overpaid but he is a very useful player in a role that is essential for Johnson’s offense. This would be another wash.

Savings: 7.5 million

Restructures

Restructures help immediately and keep the team very much solvent and dangerous in the market. But for a team that is staring down the barrel of a massive QB extension and a tackle extension for Darnell Wright, the less money committed long term, the better. They could do this for Joe Thuney and Drew Dalman, two guys who seem to be essential for the offensive infrastructure would get them 19 million according to Spotrac. Other options are Montez Sweat to open 15 million but add three void years to the end of his deal scheduled to end after 2027. Jonah Jackson gets you 11. All of this is to say that if they need the money, they can find it but there’s a risk to it.

The easiest solution on the surface is to get rid of bad contracts like Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett. Unfortunately, their deals are structured in a way that any sort of movement is at best a wash with certain machinations actually costing the Bears money. Paying someone to not play for you that you'll have to replace anyway seems like a bad usage of money.

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For the rest of this exercise let’s operate under the assumption that they release Edmunds and restructure the three lineman which gets them to 35 million worth of cap space. We’re going to leave out the Moore piece for now because if they want to maximize the financial return, it isn’t going to happen soon and I’m still skeptical it will at all and I’m not sure there is any move to be made in the free agent market that would justify another mini-extension via a restructure for Moore. If they are able to make a trade, I wonder if it isn’t just a pretty clear cut swap of that 25 million to Darnell Wright before Training Camp. Moving someone like Jaylon Johnson or restructuring Montez Sweat might be a break glass in case of emergency plan in case they’re able to add some dude covered in tattoos currently hanging out in Las Vegas.

What to do with 35 million bucks?