No Offseason: Eat Your Vegetables

You always want cookies. You always want cake. But sometimes you have to be a grown up and have some steamed vegetables with no butter or salt because you know it’s best for you. Trading two first rounders for Maxx Crosby would have been a yummy ice cream sundae. Giving big money to Trey Hendrickson would be ordering the fried donuts. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on your perspective, this offseason seems to be one in which the Bears are set up to be boring, mature and smart with their money.  

After Drew Dalman retired, DJ Moore was traded, Tremaine Edmunds was released, Garrett Bradbury was traded for and Crosby was traded to Baltimore, this Monday’s free agency period is coming into focus and that focus looks to be: spread the money, fill the holes, bet on development.

They need a starter or a large share contributor at: LT, WR, DE, DT (maybe 2), LB (maybe 2), CB and Safety (maybe 2). According to Spotrac estimates, they have 26.3 million in cap space. This figure is widely disputed depending on where you look and what their plans are for restructuring in-house players. They have plenty of money, but they also have plenty of needs. They likely need to end next week with at least four new meaningful contributors added to the roster, quite possibly more. That’s all to say that taking a swing on a 35-40 million dollar cap hit for Trey Hendrickson or a 20+ for Tyler Linderbaum would significantly limit their ability to do that. Logic would indicate that the plan is to reinforce the roster without anything that could be considered a “splash” signing and quite honestly that seems OK.  

Let’s go through some possibilities, for contract estimates I used Spotrac which identifies the “market value” meaning how much is this player worth in a vacuum. When those estimates seem absurd, I use The Athletic’s predictor from their Top 150 Free Agents. I’m  becoming a believer in the salary cap not really existing unless you have redlined your spending for multiple years. Sometimes my estimates are a hybrid of those two places. Nothing matters, eat at Arby’s, any money the Bears need, they can probably find. Let’s get to it:  

Left Tackle 

I would bet my house this is going to be the recently released Taylor Decker. When Ozzy Trapilo got hurt, finding his replacement became a question of who can jump in immediately to a Ben Johnson system without blocking the possibility of Trapilo being the long-term solution. Welp, Ben Johnson’s old left tackle should work just fine.

He will be 33 in August, but Joe Thuney has shown that the offensive line’s aging curve isn’t quite the same as other positions, and you’re also not asking Decker to protect Caleb Williams for the next decade. Spotrac puts his market value deal at 2/42 with 16 guaranteed which seems a little high to me, but there are a number of ways to massage this to fit him in even if it means cutting him after the year and wearing some dead money next year. 

Bears sign Taylor Decker: 2 years/42 million/16 guaranteed. 

Other options: Braxton Jones on a pillow contract, Justin Skule 

Wide Receiver 

I’m not ready to believe they’re willing to completely turn the receiving core over to Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and Jahdae Walker. How much they’re willing to commit to someone who, if all goes according to plan, is their third wide receiver and fourth pass catching option remains unclear. Whoever it is needs to be able to catch the ball when it’s thrown at them. You’d think that was obvious but watching them last year, it needs to be said. My preference all offseason has been Deebo Samuel. He fills the same role as Moore with significantly more rushing upside. He posted a 53% success rate as a WR last year was better than Moore’s 47, and his catch rate was in the top ten in the NFL. Spotrac has him at 2 years and 31 million with ten guaranteed, very tolerable...  

I wrote that a few days ago, in the time since I saw a breakdown of Rashid Shaheed and the “unseen” value he brings. He does two things very well (along with being a punt returner); he beats press coverage and runs really fast. A huge part of Ben Johnson’s offense is the “stretch” he wants as many defenders going back, coming forward and heading to the sidelines as possible because that opens the middle of the field. When it came to the vertical stretch, the Bears were downright bad at it last year. DJ Moore didn’t run full speed; Luther Burden would get jammed at the line, and Rome Odunze doesn’t have the top end speed to stretch it fast enough. Adding Shaheed opens up the middle faster and more often as well as providing a true home run threat, he also wasn’t charged with a drop last year while Moore was charged with three. Deebo can replicate Moore but the more I think about it, the more I think that replication shouldn’t be the goal, it should be evolution. 

Bears sign Rashid Shaheed: 3/42/33 

Other Options: Wan’Dale Robinson, Mike Evans, Romeo Doubs, Deebo Samuel, Olamide Zaccheus 

Defensive End 

This is where I’m choosing to zag with conventional wisdom based on what I’ve seen from the roster. They obviously could use a high-end pass rusher, who couldn’t, but Hendrickson showed last year he’s looking to get his money. Spotrac has him at 2/42 which is absurdly low and if I hadn’t already bet my house in this post, I would bet my house on Hendrickson getting significantly closer to if not exceeding his projection from The Athletic of 3/99. Someone is going to have the space to pay him 100 million and guarantee half of it. Danielle Hunter just signed a one-year extension worth 40 million. That’s the going rate for high-level pass rushers. It’s just not a feasible solution for a team with as many needs as the Bears.

Montez Sweat is good if not great; Austin Booker has shown flashes of being a real guy, Dayo Odeyingbo is still in the mix for better or worse, and Shemar Turner will contribute on the edge as well. Plus, it’s likely they will add another one in the draft. I would bet on them not signing any defensive end before I bet on them shelling out for Hendrickson. I do think they do something eventually but it could be closer to camp. Enough teams have seen that the mid-tier of free agent edges don’t deliver on the investment to avoid it. Just look at the Bears last year. 

Bears sign no one 

Other Options: Boye Mafe, Jadeveon Clowney, Dre’Mont Jones 

Defensive Tackle 

If the idea is to improve the defensive line, this is where they should spend rather than the edge. If you had to sort the in-house options by which they do better: stop the run or rush the passer, Dexter and Jarrett are both decent as pass rushers and very bad as run defenders. Shemar Turner is also a rusher first. They lost Andrew Billings, who was their big boy in the middle, clogging the middle and needed to improve from him anyway.

Of PFF’s top 20 run defenders among defensive linemen, only one is available on the free agent market, former Falcon David Onyemata. He’ll be 34 in November, and the Bears already saw what bringing an aging Falcon to play interior defensive line looked like last year, but none of the options are all that appealing if the goal is to stop the run. Spotrac’s estimate looks low again to me considering Grady Jarrett got 3/42/28 (my god) but this should be the #1 priority signing of the free agency period so as long as the cost is tolerable, it should get done. If that signing is paired with a draft pick like Kayden McDonald or Lee Hunter, then you have two quality run defenders to pair with Dexter and Jarrett who could have their play tick up a bit when they are tasked with doing what they’re best at. 

Bears sign David Onyemata: 2/17/12.5 

Other Options: DJ Reader, D’Shawn Hand, Tim Settle, John Franklin-Meyers, Sheldon Rankins, DaQuan Jones 

Linebacker 

Their action here will tell you a few things, 1) how healthy is TJ Edwards looking to be for next season and 2) do they think Ruben Hyppolite is an NFL player after only playing 31 defensive snaps last year? Regardless of either of these things, the obvious first move is to bring back D’Marco Jackson, who wore the green dot in multiple games last year, brought much needed speed and contributed on special teams. His projected contract is one year at one mil and some change. No brainer.

After that, it depends on what they are looking for. If speed is the goal, former Chief Leo Chenal is probably the best sideline-to-sideline linebacker available but was used in a part-time role in KC and it’s fair to wonder if he can play all three downs but both estimates have him available for an affordable three year deal. If continuity is the goal, then former Lion and more importantly, former Saint Alex Anzalone could be an easy pick. He was drafted by Dennis Allen in New Orleans and played in Detroit when Ben Johnson was there.  

Bears sign Alex Anzalone 2/21/14 and D’Marco Jackson 1/1 

Other options: Leo Chenal, DeMario Davis 

Cornerback 

This one remains unclear because other than Kyler Gordon everything else is very unsettled. Jaylon Johnson needs a new deal, likely before camp, Nahshon Wright is a free agent, Tyrique Stevenson was benched for long stretches last year, Terrell Smith is always hurt, and Zah Frazier has never played in the NFL. This may be a spot where they wait for a cut closer to camp and bring in a veteran. It is worth mentioning that the Bears had reported interest in Alontae Taylor at the trade deadline last year; Taylor is another with a connection to Allen from New Orleans. It would shock me if they brought back Nahshon Wright for any amount other than one that indicates his market completely collapsed. 

Bears sign no one 

Other Options: Alontae Taylor, Nahshon Wright 

Safety 

With both starting roles (and backup roles) open, the easiest path here is to re-sign Kevin Byard. I’m writing this during nap time at 12:30pm on Sunday, it wouldn’t surprise me if I post this and he is re-signed today at some point. I’m not against it; he checks all the boxes: won’t require a big long-term commitment, can still play, and maintains continuity on a unit that will be adding lots of new pieces. But if he’s not it might be another indicator that Ryan Poles is maturing as a GM.

The Patriots built their dynasty on the philosophy of get rid of a player one year too early rather than one year too late. Letting Kevin Byard leave after an All-Pro season at age 32 would look bad in the moment, but what exactly are the odds of him replicating this season? Basically, the question is which is more likely, 33-year-old Kevin Byard being an All Pro again next year or looking like a 33-year-old at a position dominated by youth and athleticism? That said, it’s a lot easier to make that decision if you didn’t have to replace two safeties so for that reason, I think they’ll bring him back while drafting his eventual replacement. What is working against Byard is that the market is flooded with his type of free field safety, so if he stands on a particular demand, there are a half dozen places the Bears can go elsewhere.

The other side is where they will definitely be replacing Jaquan Brisker, ideally with someone who plays the run very well from the safety spot and whose coverage skills can be mitigated by a quality player like Byard. It will be interesting to see how they evaluate former Chief Bryan Cook who played mostly free safety but can certainly play down too. He’s the best safety available and if the Bears want to make whatever version of a “splash” they’re interested in, this could be one that doesn’t financially handcuff them the way Hendrickson would.

The name that I’m watching is 24-year-old Nick Cross from Indianapolis who is a pure box safety and blitzer. He ranked third among safeties in pressures last season and led all safeties in “splash plays” which The Athletic defines as “plays which result in end of drive, loss of yards or negative success.” 

Bears sign Kevin Byard: 2/21/15 AND Nick Cross 3/24/21 

Other Options: Bryan Cook, Alohi Gilman, Jaylinn Hawkins, Jalen Thompson, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Jabrill Peppers 

Do these moves make them a top 5 defense or set them up to break the offensive scoring record like Caleb Williams said he wants to? Probably not. But does it make them better than they were last year? Very likely. Pair that with a draft in which they now have four picks in the top 100 with the possibility of a fifth coming and this kind of unsexy offseason raises the floor and allows for the real stars that this team thinks they have to establish themselves.