Week 2 Data Dump

Two weeks in the books and the Bears were able to produce both ends of the extreme outcome spectrum. Some people with big fancy degrees might tell you that trying to draw statistical conclusions based on two massive outlier performances is flawed. I don’t care what anyone else says; I’m going to try anyway. All data from Sumer Sports.

The offense is a study in extremes and the data pulled from it isn’t all that helpful. They are productive but inefficient as evidenced by the discrepancy between EPA and Success Rate. They are not producing enough in the passing game and relying on a run game that is dominant at times. Drives have been consistently derailed by penalties. The underlying issue is the spike in pressure rate which can partially be explained by the Vikings as an opponent.

Ultimately, there is way too much statistical noise between scoring 59 points and playing a blitz crazed defense in the rain to make much sense out of the offensive numbers so far.

Defensively, the data is a little more reliable so far. It paints a picture that at least on one hand, is expected: a bottom tier defense with issues in both run defense and pass coverage. The real issue may ultimately be systemic though. Through two weeks, the Bears are playing the least amount of zone coverage in the NFL. The Seahawks play the most. Even in that small anecdote, if you're on the opposite end of Mike MacDonald, it might be an indication that your scheme is antiquated. A ton of man coverage with corners who are not good in man coverage is a recipe for disaster and a worrying sign that Dennis Allen doesn't really know his personnel. Through two weeks, among 99 qualified cornerbacks, Jaylon Johnson ranks: 97th in yards allowed per coverage snap, 94th in yards per target and 68th in completion percentage allowed. That can't be your number one corner. On the other side, Tyrique Stevenson ranks 84th in YPCS, 84th in YPT but 30th in completion percentage allowed. Depending on your perspective, the bright side would be Malik Muhammad is 68th, 38th and 24th respectively in those metrics. I say depending on your perspective because it's great that a rookie is showing well but if he's your best corner, you have problems.

The coverage issues are a product of the 6th highest blitz rate (40.3%) in the NFL but the fact that all those blitzes are only generating the 17th highest pressure rate (38.8%) is a pretty firm indication that it's not working. For context, the Patriots are right above the Bears in blitz rate at 41.1% but are generating pressure at a 46.6% rate, 4th best in the NFL.

The run defense is similarly below average but sitting at 18th in EPA/rush this year is a vast improvement from last year's 29th mark. The interior defensive line has actually been quite good by Sumer's Run Stop Rate metric, which is what it sounds like, how many run defense snaps have they played with how many stops they made on those plays. League average sits at about 5%; James Lynch (14.3%), Grady Jarrett (13.3%) and Kentavius Street (11.5%) all fall on the plus side of that average by a lot. Neville Gallimore has not contributed and Jordan van den Berg has not played enough. A game in the rain helps but the interior of the line is not a problem, at least not yet.

One issue in the run defense has been the lack of help from the edges, Sweat sits at just a 3.7% run stop rate, while Dayo Odeyingbo who has been shockingly good as a pass rusher does not have any run stops while Austin Booker has been relegated to a pass rush specialist role. But if you want the culprit as to why the rush defense metrics still look below average, it is one unit and quite frankly, one player. TJ Edwards doesn't just look like a player who is declining, he looks like a player who is unplayable. Among 82 qualified linebackers, he has a missed tackle rate of 44%, second worst. Sumer "credits" him with four missed tackles through two games and only five total tackles, none of those are credited as run stops. He has also been targeted six times in coverage with six completions, allowing 10.17 yards per target (league average for linebackers is 7.25). Devin Bush has cemented himself as the LB1 with some splash plays like two run stuffs and only allowing 3.8 yards per target but his run stop rate is still 2.2%, below league average. It's pretty clear they were planning on Bush being the sideline-to-sideline coverage backer with Edwards being the most static green dot cleaning up the middle. The second part certainly hasn't happened. There are some positive signs from guys like Dillon Thieneman as well, the data doesn't love him yet but the eye test sure does. Sometimes it's as simple as "this guy is always around the ball." In summation, the defensive issues are stark but not necessarily unfixable. Dennis Allen needs to reckon with who is on his team and who he is asking to do what while providing lots more protection to his corners who simply aren't good enough. There also needs to be a conversation about whether or not TJ Edwards is still someone who should be seeing 100% of the snaps on defense.