The Bears Are Bad

It is with a heavy heart that I must report: The Chicago Bears are going to be bad.

It all comes back to the same question the followed them all offseason and is still relevant the day they are setting their 2026 53-man roster: where are they a better team now than they were when they walked off the field after losing to the Rams?

Wait.

Stop.

Not better if somebody makes a leap.

Not better if somebody stays healthy.

Which position group has better players in it than it did last year? We don’t live in hypotheticals. So “Rome Odunze will break out!” or “Jaylon Johnson will stay healthy!” are just hopes and wishes. Where are they better?

The Health Plan

You knew they were screwed the second that Poles and Johnson both answered that question with “well we’re going to be healthier.”

OK, so you’re not going to be better.

Being “healthy” in the NFL is a myth. Every team has lots of injuries every year. Not to mention, the two places where injuries truly destroy seasons are at QB and offensive line. They got 17 games out of their QB and 67/68 from the four established members of the offensive line. The fact that they had injuries to linebackers and cornerbacks is just football. The injury luck regression would even indicate they’re in for it worse this year if they lose Caleb Williams or Joe Thuney or Darnell Wright for any stretch of time. Case in point...

Coby Bryant is hurt and will miss most of the season. This would have been their most significant injury all season last year and it happened in July. Bryant was unquestionably the centerpiece of the offseason and right behind Williams, Thuney and Wright for the guys they could least afford to lose. But they lost him. Because it’s football and guys get injured. If your plan is to not get injured at key spots, then you have a bad plan.

Ryan Poles and a poor plan: couldn’t possibly be.

Hope isn't a plan.

They hope Braxton Jones isn’t the same guy they’ve benched twice in two years. They hope Austin Booker is significantly better than anyone expected during the draft. They hope Jordan Van den Berg is some kind of scouting home run. They hope the cornerbacks stay healthy. They hope they have drafted well as they continue to cut or trade or bench high value draft picks at breakneck speed. They hope they don’t miss DJ Moore too much.

The offense is likely to be decent but they made a mistake not replacing DJ Moore with an established veteran who can contribute. Everyone loves the DJ Moore walkoff TD against the Packers.

Where were Rome Odunze and Luther Burden during that play?

In street clothes.

Burden missed two games last year and exited two others early. Odunze missed five and was compromised all season, at least that’s the current excuse. DJ Moore was far from perfect but the fact that they had to salary dump him and will replace him with a career special teamer (Kalif Raymond), an overdrafted rookie (Zavion Thomas) and a guy with six career catches (Jahdae Walker) is something that no team with a rookie deal QB should ever have to do.

And That's the Bright Spot

One of the league’s worst defenses returns to offend the eyes for another season… and they might be worse?

27th by overall success rate last year, 25th against the pass and 29th against the run. If it wasn’t for an entirely unsustainable rate of turnovers, they would have been duking it out with the Bengals and Cowboys for historically awful defenses last year.

Worse than the Bengals at anything defensively last year is a big time problem.

Since the league expanded to 17 games in 2021, last year’s Bears ranked 114th out of 128 teams in rushing success rate. So last year’s team was not just bad but among the worst rushing defenses of the era. The solution to that problem was to bring back Grady Jarrett who ranked 188th out of 206 defensive lineman against the run in success rate. Which seems bad. But hey, they brought in some heavy hitters like Neville Gallimore who is on his fourth team in four years which happens to lots of guys who are good... I’m assuming. Then can I interest you in a pupu platter of journeymen like James Lynch and Kentavious Street? Or what about a 6th round pick who the beat writers love? If he’s Aaron Donald, they might be OK. But considering he was picked by the same guy who loved Zacch Pickens, consider me skeptical. Speaking of terrible draft misses, they did trade Gervon Dexter who is bad so maybe you’ll get some addition by subtraction.

The Pass Rush

Lots of people want to talk pass rush, but the pass rush wasn’t even that bad last year. I mean, it wasn’t good, but it wasn’t that bad. They were 21st in sack rate. They could have been worse. Ryan Poles apparently thought that “wasn’t that bad” was perfectly acceptable because they did nothing to make it better. They’re just going to hope that a 5th round pick that played ten games last year (and is hurt again) turns into Maxx Crosby and that the free agent they signed after a legendary three sack season returns from a torn Achilles to be good. Strong plan.

But hey, at least they have a key member of the secondary being openly criticized by the head coach at every turn because he seemingly is refusing to rehab and play football. Good sign.

6-11.

6-11. That is what you should prepare yourself for. You’re probably saying that Tim jeez man they were 11-6 last year. Well let’s walk through one of the most fool’s gold seasons in the history of the NFL.

-Needed a blocked field goal to beat the team that went on to have the #1 pick.

-Needed Jayden Daniels to fumble a wet ball in the rain while the Commanders were running out the clock.

-Needed Jaxson Dart, who was shredding them, to get hurt and be replaced by Russell Wilson who was so bad it was literally the last game of his career.

-Needed the Packers to not recover an onside kick, something that happens 93% of the time.

-Needed the Bengals to be the worst defense in the modern history of the NFL after puking up a two-touchdown lead in two minutes.

Having Caleb Williams is fun until you investigate why he needed to be heroic so often.

6-11.

And that’s not even mentioning that they got to play Spencer Rattler instead of Tyler Shough, Mason Rudolph instead of Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco instead of Joe Burrow and Shedeur freaking Sanders for four of their wins (they also lost to Lamar Jackson’s backup.) They needed a last second kick return to avoid losing to JJ McCarthy twice, got their ass kicked by the Lions twice and led the Packers by a grand total of zero minutes and zero seconds in the two regular season games. A robust 2-4 in the division.

The Bottom Line

The talent has never been there. The luck was last year. But unless Kevin Warren has done more of his high-quality negotiating with the devil, this team is going to suck. Sorry.

If you’re thoroughly enraged, you might find comfort in why the Bears will be awesome here.